Week 10 Start/Sit

As always, this article will not feature players who are every week starts or sits. For our definitive thoughts, check our rankings or bring your questions to @3SDJustin, @3SDChris, and @3SDWilliam. I am also on the Fantasy Life app @Justin3SD.  Once again, we do not know the full makeup of your team, so just because a player is listed as a sit does not mean you should bench them. It simply means that we are not confident in that player’s production for the week. The same goes for starts.

STARTS OF THE WEEK

RB- Dion Lewis,  Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson Jr.

WR- Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry, MVS

SITS OF THE WEEK

RB- Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Sony Michel

WR- T.Y. Hilton, Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin

Here’s the intro to the article, now let’s get to it. Starts and Sits of the week were discussed at length in episode 39 of the pod if you want the “Why” to our choices. As always, we’ll start with the starts.

STARTS

Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals, @ Kansas City Chiefs

Coming out of the BYE, the Cardinals draw a tough matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. We mentioned on the pod how much better the KC defense is at home as opposed to on the road. If this trend continues, it could be an ugly day for the Cardinals offense. We can’t help but think the usage we saw with Fitzgerald in Byron Leftwich’s first game as Offensive Coordinator continues though. In week 8, Fitzgerald led the team in targets (11), receptions (7), receiving yards (65), and air yards (109). He held a 42% share of air yards and a target share of 29%, both of which were his highest since week 1 when he turned in 43% and 29% respectively. In a game where the Cardinals will likely be down early, we have him as a low-end WR2 based on his potential volume and TD upside (scored in 2 straight games).

Jared Goff, QB Los Angeles Rams, Vs. Seattle Seahawks

Don’t be scared of Seattle’s #1 ranked defense against QBs, or the fact that that they are second in passing yards allowed, 5th in completions, and 7th in passing TDs. Goff is the 3rd overall ranked QB so far this year according to Pro Football Focus with a grade of 91.7. What’s more is that Sean McVay is a mastermind in terms of drawing up mismatches for his players. The Rams will scheme their guys open and Goff will find them, and once again make the game of football at the professional level look miles easier than what it is.

Nick Mullens, QB San Francisco 49ers, Vs. New York Giants

I originally wanted to put Mullens on the “Sit List” as we like to say on the show, painting the picture of the rookie coming back down to Earth after his week 9 breakout. In that obliteration of the Oakland Raiders skeleton crew, Mullens went “HAM sandwich” as the kids say. He was 16/22 for 262 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs. He was sacked exactly 0 times on the night. The thing is though, the Raiders have 7 sacks on the season, which is dead last in the NFL. You know who’s next to last? You got it, the New York “Football” (their definition of football these days is a little different than most others’) Giants. They have posted a massive 10 sacks on the season. Some of the other defensive numbers for both teams are a little misleading, as Oakland is actually 3rd in the NFL with only 152 allowed completions on the year. The Giants are 9th in that same metric. The Raiders are 12th in passing yards allowed, while the Giants are 8th. The real difference lies in passing TDs given up by these two defenses. The Raiders have given up 18 on the season, while the Giants have only given up 11. For this sole reason, we’re pumping the brakes on Mullens’ upside this week, but he’s at home again and should have all day to stand in the pocket. He’s in the low-end streamer conversation in 14+ team leagues or 2 QB leagues. We love the underdog!

Desean Jackson, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Vs. Washington Redskins

If you rolled out DJAX last week hoping that the FitzJackson connection was going to regain some of the traction that it had in the first couple of weeks (30+ yards/target), you were highly disappointed at best. The offense scored 4 TDs through the air, with a hearty 0 of them going to Jackson. He caught 2 passes on 4 targets for 32 yards. That’s the risk you take when you start Jackson though. He has games of 8, 9, and 8 targets this year, but has been at 5 or fewer in all others. He’s a big-play guy, not a PPR guy. The week 10 bottom line for Jackson is this: We don’t expect Humphries and O.J. Howard to gobble up 4 TDs again this week, so Jackson and #1 option Mike Evans should get back on track. If you need a “floor” play, keep Jackson on the bench. If you need to inject some upside into that FLEX of yours, he’s your guy.

Leonard Fournette, RB Jacksonville Jaguars, @ Indianapolis Colts

We’re not going to spend much time on this, as it should be obvious. Fournette does not carry an injury designation into the week 10 game against the Colts, so start him. However (and this is a big however), we don’t expect him to get nearly the 3rd down work he was getting in the preseason/early regular season. We also expect him to split the early down work with Carlos Hyde. We’re not sure what the split for early down work will be at this point, but if I had to guess I would put it at 70/30 in favor of Fournette. Start him, but be scared of the hamstring, and expect a lower ceiling than what you drafted/traded for him at in PPR leagues.

Jordan Howard, RB Chicago Bears, Vs. Detroit Lions

This is one part recency bias, one part belief that Jordan Howard is good at football, and one part matchup. The Lions enter week 10 as the 26th overall defense against RBs and are giving up 5.6 YPC on the season. The Lions are also pretty good at holding pass-catching RBs in check, as they are 10th in receptions given up to the position, and 11th in receiving yards. Tarik Cohen’s usage has decreased over the last two games as well (5 total targets, 2 total receptions), so it looks like the stars are aligning for Howard in this one, who himself is coming off of a 2 TD performance in week 9. He may be a great bounce-back candidate for the next month or so, as his next three games are against divisional rivals that he has historically dominated.

Mike Williams, WR Los Angeles Chargers, @ Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders are a very bad football team. They have a very bad defense. They are bad at stopping opposing TEs (5th worst in fact).

“TEs?” you may ask. “But isn’t Mike Williams a WR?”

Yes, he is, technically. He has basically been a part-time fill in for Hunter Henry though since Antonio Gates closely resembles that old lady you helped across the street last Tuesday morning. Williams has put up a line of 18 receptions on 38 targets for 338 yards and 5 TDs through 9 weeks. If those don’t sound like TE numbers to you, hurry and make an appointment with the doc before your deductible renews. He’s in the flex conversation at best, but if you need WR help in a deeper league, don’t hesitate to throw him out there. The Raiders have given up 6 TDs to TEs this year, most among teams that have only played 8 games and tied for 2nd worst overall.

Josh Gordon, WR New England Patriots, @ Tennessee Titans

Speaking of WRs who look like TEs, I’m pretty hungry. As we said on the Monday episode of the pod, Gordon finally came through at ceiling-level for those of you (like me) who have persevered his lack of production throughout the season. Unfortunately, I got excited and promised to FLEX Amari Cooper on the show, which forced me to bench Gordon. Alas, we expect a similar output this week as Gronk is again deemed inactive. He’ll play a ton of snaps and see 8-10 targets from the G.O.AT. against a secondary who struggles against outside WRs. Amari Cooper had a great showing in his first game with the Cowboys against these same guys last week. Gordon is a high-end WR2 with top 10 upside the rest of the season.

Amari Cooper, WR Dallas Cowboys, @ Philadelphia Eagles

Speaking of Amari Cooper, start Amari Cooper this week. In his first game with the ‘Boys, he caught 5 balls on 8 targets for 58 yards and a TD. This all came in a game where the Dallas Cowboys misinterpreted the NFL Policies and Procedures Manual and thought they could only pass the ball on 3rd down. This obviously led to the offense becoming very predictable and to many Dak Prescott hits and sacks. Expecting Scott Linehan to learn from these woes may be a bit too farfetched, but we’re hoping on a hope that he does. With Cooper being a true #1, Gallup making some plays on the other side, and Beasley working the middle of the field, the Cowboys have the opportunity to be more balanced and open than at any time in the Dak/Zeke era. It only helps that the Eagles are 21st in the NFL against WRs. Cooper is an easy mid to low-end WR2 based on matchup and volume alone. Come take a ride on the “Amari Train” (not trademarked yet but I’m working on it). “Coop, Coop!!!!”

Quincy Enunwa, WR New York Jets, Vs. Buffalo Bills

Entering what easily should be the ugliest matchup of the week, Tre’Davious White was projected to shadow Robby Anderson. Anderson is OUT though, so it doesn’t look like White will shadow anyone according to PFF. This is great news for Enunwa, as he should find himself open more than he would if one of the league’s best shutdown corners was following him around. This is a disgusting pick, but with the amount of volume he could see from Josh McCown, we’ll have him ranked as a WR3/FLEX option in this one.

Marlon Mack, RB Indianapolis Colts, Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Mack has been ballin’ out as of late, to say the very least. He has been a weapon on the ground and through the air, and has seen his snap counts rise in each of the last three games culminating in a sizable 63% share in the Colts week 8 clash against the Raiders. That they’re coming off their BYE does nothing but bolster Mack’s chances of making this four in a row. You may see all the stats out there on the Jaguars defense and question whether or not Mack should be in your lineup this week. Don’t let those numbers become more than mere fleeting thoughts, as Mack’s usage and big-play ability still keep him in the fringe RB1 discussion.

SITS

Kenyan Drake, RB Miami Dolphins, @ Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 18th overall against RBs entering week 10 and are giving up a healthy 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs. The unfortunate part of this is the part where Frank Gore gets the lion’s share of the ground work. In the last 4 games, Gore is out-carrying Drake 57-34. The bad news doesn’t end there for Drake though. The Packers are tied for 5th in the NFL in terms of receptions given up to RBs. They have given up only 36 for a total of 330 yards (9th) and 1 TD (tied for 2nd). Since Drake has 14 receptions over the last four games, compared to Gore’s 4, he stands to lose the most in this one. If you have to start him, you’ll be sorrowful if he doesn’t find the painted section of the field towards the end at which the offense is travelling (the endzone if you couldn’t catch that).

Marquise Goodwin, WR San Francisco 49ers, Vs. New York Giants

As mentioned in the Nick Mullens section, the 49ers offense cliqued last week in the “Bay Area Beatdown.” Unfortunately, Goodwin wasn’t one of the cool kids and therefore was not part of the clique. He caught an 11-yard pass on the 49ers very first throw of the game, then went 0 for 3 the rest of the game. The blow-up against the Packers just seems like a byproduct of the Packers’ youth and inexperience in the secondary, and not one of gameplanning. Goodwin is obviously very fast so one big play can make the week for you, but entering week 10 he has made very few big plays. I wouldn’t count on it this week, as there are plenty other options out there at WR. Oh yea, and the Giants are 3rd best against WRs this year too.

Kerryon Johnson, RB Detroit Lions, @ Chicago Bears

This is another one of those fairly obvious ones, This week, not only do you have to worry about the two other RBs in Detroit, but you also have to worry about the Chicago Bears and their 2nd ranked defense against RBs. They’re giving up less than 3.5 YPC on the season and have given up less than 1 TD on the ground(that’s 0). Kerryon will need to see a pretty hefty uptick in opportunity or score a TD to not kill you this week.

We’re lite on sits again this week, as we want to put most of the focus on players who need to be in your starting lineup. Good luck in week 10, and let us know how you feel about the article! 

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